Aquatic species shows asymmetric distribution range shifts in native and non-native areas

Introduction Climate change is reshaping the geographical distribution of species across globe. In marine ecosystems, climate creates novel challenges to an environment impacted by numerous anthropogenic stressors. Forecasting shifts in distribution, including expansion non-indigenous under scenarios, a management challenge for today’s world. Methods We applied Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) models investigate environmental factors modulating occurrence and habitat preferences Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896 native non-native areas. With BART models, we also aimed predict its current future distributions two scenarios (RCPs 4.5 8.5). were performed using global occurrences – recorded from 1830 2022 several covariates (i.e., water temperature, salinity, velocity, rugosity). Model accuracy was assessed with Area Under Curve (AUC) True Skill Statistics (TSS) criteria. Cross-validation experiments made balance prediction uncertainty model intervals. Results discussion AUC TSS values indicated that data validation successful model. Water temperature most critical variable affecting presence probability crab. The predicts asymmetric range on both sides Ocean. populations will experience broader their than range, RCP 8.5 scenario outputs wider end century. Overall, anticipate significant ecological changes areas often equivalent induced invasive species, so lessons learned ecologists managers provide actionable insights